Nouriel Roubini
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Nouriel Roubini

Cofounder and Chairman, Roubini Macro Associates, LLC; and Professor of Economics & International Business, New York University's Stern School of Business

One of the most respected and influential economists in the world, Nouriel Roubini provides an insightful look at what is ahead for the US and global economy.

 
Downside and Upside Risks in the Global Economy

Downside risks include a recurrence of EZ financial stresses, given austerity fatigue and political fragility in the periphery; another fight over the debt ceiling and government shutdown in the U.S; an earlier and more serious hard landing in China; a policy mistake by the Fed if exit from zero rates occurs too  soon or too late; a few systemically important EMs experiencing outright financial/currency/sovereign crisis; geo-political developments in Russia or the Middle East that spook investors.

Upside risks include a further fall in oil prices that boosts global growth, especially in oil importing economies; a U.S. economy that grows faster—well above 3% plus; more resilient growth in China and a smooth rebalancing of its economy; a stronger recovery of the EZ and Japan as QE and weaker currencies boost growth; and an improvement in global risk sentiment that boosts risky asset prices in a significant way. Of all of these upside risks, a positive growth surprise in the U.S. looks like the most likely.

U.S Economic Outlook

The U.S. economic recovery is gathering momentum. Positives include a recovering housing market, the shale gas and oil revolution, continued monetary accommodation by the Fed, strong corporate profits, the re-shoring of some manufacturing, stronger consumer confidence, a rising stock market and investor optimism in other risk assets, rising job creation and entrepreneurial dynamism. Negatives including policy gridlock and uncertainty in Washington, unresolved fiscal issues (debt ceiling, tax reform), the impact of a stronger dollar, the effects of the likely Fed exit from a zero rate policy; and tail risks from the global economy (possibility of tail risks from the EZ, risk of Chinese hard landing, geopolitical tensions impacting markets).
 

Meet Nouriel Roubini

One of the most respected and influential economists in the world, Nouriel Roubini provides an insightful look at what is ahead for the US and global economy.

Nouriel Roubini is the cofounder and chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, an independent, global macroeconomic and market strategy research firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and has extensive policy experience including his time as Senior Economist for International Affairs with the White House's Council of Economic Advisers and Senior Advisor to the Undersecretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department during the Clinton Administration. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise. He has authored several books including his most recent Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance.

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